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Experts Cut Export Growth Estimates
(TNA) – The country’s exports for this year are expected to grow only 9.46 per cent to US$142.47 billion, lower than targeted earlier by the Commerce Ministry, due to the baht volatility, global economic slowdown, oil price rise, and unrest in the country, according to a leading academic.
Aat Pisanwanich, Director of the International Trade Study Centte of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, projected the exports this year would miss the growth target set previously at 12.5 per cent with a total value of $145 billion.
The lower-than-expected export growth is mainly attributed by a continued baht appreciation.
The strengthening of the currency by one baht to the dollar would make the export value drop by 3.1 per cent.
The imports of goods for production for export this year are likely to grow at least 10.17 per cent to US$139.74 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $2.73 billion for the whole year.
“The expected decline in the exports may result from the continued strengthening of the baht, global economic slowdown, and local unrest.
“In particular, coordinated bombings, which have occurred since late last year, have undermined confidence among tourists and investors.
“So, it is expected the Songkran or Thai New Year festival this year will not be as lively as that of last year because some people may opt to stay home rather than revelling in various tourist sites for fear of possible bombings,” he said.
Mr. Aat forecast exports in the second quarter would be $33.14 billion, down 0.81 per cent from the previous quarter, since the baht continued to appreciate, oil prices surged, and economies of trading partners slowed down.
The imports in the second quarter are expected to grow by 16.33 per cent as a result of a shipment of more inventory goods and the signing of the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement.
JTEPA would encourage the import of products from Japan because there is a reduction of import tariff cuts in various kinds of product items.
It resulted in the country’s trade deficit of around $3.59 billion in the second quarter of this year, he said.
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